Post by lm_Brian on Jan 2, 2015 3:33:02 GMT
As we should all know by now, He Who Must Not Be Named has thrust us into an inescapable death battle, which will inevitably lead to the destruction of every nation until only the One Victor remains, may glory be upon him.
In order to be adequately prepared for this, especially if one intends to be that Victor, a crucial question emerges: When? I have made several attempts to answer that question already, but the continuing increase in the data I have means that new updates and predictions are necessary for any reasonable accuracy.
Today I present the sum of the data I have collected, over the course of the 27 days since the beginning of the games, when we fell to 400 nations.
Here are the 10 data points I have collected. Initially it seemed to be curving upwards, implying a reducing rate of collapse likely leading to a very long period before only one nation remains. I was rather surprised when it appeared to level out, however recent data has shown a reverse of this trend, with the rate of nations going inactive actually increasing over the last few days. This has led me to conclude an oscillating pattern, where the continuous rise and fall in the dropout rate serves to disguise the true rate of collapse.
With that premise, I attempted to fit a function to the data I had collected, and found that after the oscillation an average rate of 2.3 nations per day dropping out could be calculated. This heavily implied a linear path of collapse, to which I do not yet have evidence that contradicts.
When continuing this path on the assumption that the trend will remain further into the games, I reached an expected end of 165 to 183 days, counting from December 1. This puts the date of death somewhere around the second half of June. While it is very likely this result is not reached, especially since each individual oscillation depends on in-game conditions and the actions of players to cause a change in decline rate, it is sufficient for strategic decisions and should reflect the underlying tendencies and nature of the game to come.
In order to be adequately prepared for this, especially if one intends to be that Victor, a crucial question emerges: When? I have made several attempts to answer that question already, but the continuing increase in the data I have means that new updates and predictions are necessary for any reasonable accuracy.
Today I present the sum of the data I have collected, over the course of the 27 days since the beginning of the games, when we fell to 400 nations.
Here are the 10 data points I have collected. Initially it seemed to be curving upwards, implying a reducing rate of collapse likely leading to a very long period before only one nation remains. I was rather surprised when it appeared to level out, however recent data has shown a reverse of this trend, with the rate of nations going inactive actually increasing over the last few days. This has led me to conclude an oscillating pattern, where the continuous rise and fall in the dropout rate serves to disguise the true rate of collapse.
With that premise, I attempted to fit a function to the data I had collected, and found that after the oscillation an average rate of 2.3 nations per day dropping out could be calculated. This heavily implied a linear path of collapse, to which I do not yet have evidence that contradicts.
When continuing this path on the assumption that the trend will remain further into the games, I reached an expected end of 165 to 183 days, counting from December 1. This puts the date of death somewhere around the second half of June. While it is very likely this result is not reached, especially since each individual oscillation depends on in-game conditions and the actions of players to cause a change in decline rate, it is sufficient for strategic decisions and should reflect the underlying tendencies and nature of the game to come.
